Sustainable communities should be:
* Active, inclusive and safe - Fair, tolerant and cohesive with a strong local culture and other shared community activities.
* Well run - with effective and inclusive participation, representation and leadership.
* Environmentally sensitive - providing places for people to live that are considerate of the environment.
* Well designed and built - featuring a quality built and natural environment.
* Well connected - with good transport services and communication linking people to jobs, schools, health and other services.
* Thriving - with a flourishing and diverse local economy.
* Well served - with public, private, community and voluntary services that are appropriate to people's needs and accessible to all.
* Fair for everyone - including those in other communities, now and in the future
Tuesday, 1 April 2008
Saturday, 22 March 2008
Tuesday, 18 March 2008
Bangkok breathes easier
http://www.gluckman.com/BangkokPollution.html
Bangkok breathes easier
Once blighted by belching buses and thick smog, Bangkok cleaned up its act and air over recent decades. Cutting motorcycle emissions and adding an overhead subway helped, but most measures were easy, efficient and paid quick results. As Bangkok has grown greener, much of Asia, suffocating in thick layers of smog, should pay attention.
By Ron Gluckman / Bangkok, Thailand
JITENDRA SHAH, AN AIR QUALITY specialist covering Asia for the World Bank, always got a graphic reminder of the hard work ahead on flights to Bangkok. Circling overhead, he would look out the window and wince. Below, buried beneath thick smog, was Bangkok. He could already sense the traffic jams and belching buses. Soon, he would smell them.
That was in the early 1990s, when Shah was based in Washington DC, but roamed around Asia pushing schemes to clean up power plants and reduce poisonous levels of sulfur, carbon monoxide and lead, all too common across fast-developing Asia.
Nowadays, Shah is based in Bangkok, running the Bank’s environmental programs around Southeast Asia, but his agenda has lightened. He bubbles about walk-ability studies. An avid urban stroller, he wants to make it easier for Thais to hike around their capital. Should they do so, more often than not, they will be greeted by blue skis that mark Bangkok as an unusual environmental success story.
Across the region, whether gloomy industrial centers in China or modern cities like Hong Kong, residents choke in a haze of ever-grimier air. The majority of the world’s most polluted cities are in Asia; seven of the 10 dirtiest in China, according to the World Bank. Bangkok, in contrast, has cleaned up, improving air quality over the past decade.
“No question,” says Shah, “In many ways, Bangkok is in the forefront.”
He credits a variety of measures, from crackdowns on polluting vehicles and conversion of motor bikes from two to cleaner four-stroke engines, to simple solutions, like washing streets, clearing away construction dust.
“Bangkok has really shown a can-do attitude towards air quality. In many ways, it’s a model for the region.”
Such appraisals surprise locals. Surveys show that air pollution and road congestion remain high among concerns of the Thai capital’s 10 million residents.
Yet data proves that Bangkok has not only cleaned up its act, but bucked a trend that finds residents of more prosperous cities like Singapore and Hong Kong decrying increasingly hazy skies.
“People don’t really realize the success,” notes Thailand Energy Minister Piyasvasti Amranand, “but the air has improved a lot over the past 15 years. Some of the things you can see, but a lot of the improvement you never really notice.”
Take lead pollution. Tests showing high lead levels among some school children and traffic policemen in the early 1990s, spurred efforts to ban leaded gas. The plan met stiff resistance from oil producers and car manufacturers. Consumers were concerned over costs, but Piyasvasti, then with the National Energy Policy Office, pushed on.
Thailand quickly went lead-free by 1995, a year before the United States, which had begun its own conversion two decades earlier.
Bangkok can do even better, according to Dr. Bhichit Rattakul, founder of the Anti Air Pollution & Environmental Protection Foundation. He points to outdated buses, many retired from the government fleet, but then returned to service by private operators.
He says that almost half of the city’s fleet of 14,000 buses violate air quality controls. “We need to get tougher. These rules are on the books. We just need better enforcement.”
Piyasvasti promises that dirty buses “are my next target.” He wants to convert them to natural gas, which not only burns cleaner but, thanks to subsidies from fuel taxes, offers better value.
However, conversion costs are high – over $5000 for trucks and buses, he says. Piyasvasti hopes to provide additional incentives with the fuel fund.
A London-trained economist, Piyasvasti is adept at financing green schemes. He raised fuel prices quietly recently to stockpile funds to increase incentives for bio-fuel, the rage across the globe.
Biodiesel (diesel mixed with local palm oil), and gasohol, (with ethanol made from local sugar cane and tapioca), have been available in limited quality since 2004. Within five years, Piyasvasti promises a complete conversion to bio-fuel.
Environmental attention in Bangkok naturally focuses upon cars because of colossal road jams. In the 1990s, when Shah began visiting, gridlock strangled efficiency. Short rides in taxis took two hours. Some workers commuted at dark, then slept in cars or under their desks. Bangkok officials seemed unable to figure out a means of easing the jams.
The Asian Financial Crisis that swept across the region was a blessing in disguise. The meltdown began and was perhaps the most severe here. Thailand is only now returning to 1997 levels of prosperity, but the crisis provided a vital breather from the pell-mell pace of development. Rampant real estate speculation stalled, allowing planners a chance to reassess growth and propose new directions.
Most important was the introduction of the first subway in 1999. The BTS, an elevated train, took time to win acceptance, concedes Bhichit, governor of the Bangkok region when it opened, but patronage has since doubled.
“You see everyone on it,” he notes, “not just tourists. But business people with briefcases and ties. It works.”
A second subway line was added a few years later, but Bhichit and other urban activists want still more track. A new line is under construction to the recently-opened airport, and the government plans major expansion into the suburbs.
Bhichit endorses even more radical measures, like dropping parking-space requirements for new buildings. This would encourage fewer people to take to congested city streets, where another 300 cars are added daily. “We need to get people out of their cars.”
Doing so would provide another dividend in the battle for clear air. Bangkok residents could take pride in their bluer skies, something seldom seen elsewhere in Asia.
Ron Gluckman is an American reporter, currently based in Bangkok (and Cambodia), who has been roaming around Asia for 16 years for a variety of publications including Overseas Focus in the UK, which ran this piece in May 2007.
All pictures by Ron Gluckman
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Bangkok breathes easier
Once blighted by belching buses and thick smog, Bangkok cleaned up its act and air over recent decades. Cutting motorcycle emissions and adding an overhead subway helped, but most measures were easy, efficient and paid quick results. As Bangkok has grown greener, much of Asia, suffocating in thick layers of smog, should pay attention.
By Ron Gluckman / Bangkok, Thailand
JITENDRA SHAH, AN AIR QUALITY specialist covering Asia for the World Bank, always got a graphic reminder of the hard work ahead on flights to Bangkok. Circling overhead, he would look out the window and wince. Below, buried beneath thick smog, was Bangkok. He could already sense the traffic jams and belching buses. Soon, he would smell them.
That was in the early 1990s, when Shah was based in Washington DC, but roamed around Asia pushing schemes to clean up power plants and reduce poisonous levels of sulfur, carbon monoxide and lead, all too common across fast-developing Asia.
Nowadays, Shah is based in Bangkok, running the Bank’s environmental programs around Southeast Asia, but his agenda has lightened. He bubbles about walk-ability studies. An avid urban stroller, he wants to make it easier for Thais to hike around their capital. Should they do so, more often than not, they will be greeted by blue skis that mark Bangkok as an unusual environmental success story.
Across the region, whether gloomy industrial centers in China or modern cities like Hong Kong, residents choke in a haze of ever-grimier air. The majority of the world’s most polluted cities are in Asia; seven of the 10 dirtiest in China, according to the World Bank. Bangkok, in contrast, has cleaned up, improving air quality over the past decade.
“No question,” says Shah, “In many ways, Bangkok is in the forefront.”
He credits a variety of measures, from crackdowns on polluting vehicles and conversion of motor bikes from two to cleaner four-stroke engines, to simple solutions, like washing streets, clearing away construction dust.
“Bangkok has really shown a can-do attitude towards air quality. In many ways, it’s a model for the region.”
Such appraisals surprise locals. Surveys show that air pollution and road congestion remain high among concerns of the Thai capital’s 10 million residents.
Yet data proves that Bangkok has not only cleaned up its act, but bucked a trend that finds residents of more prosperous cities like Singapore and Hong Kong decrying increasingly hazy skies.
“People don’t really realize the success,” notes Thailand Energy Minister Piyasvasti Amranand, “but the air has improved a lot over the past 15 years. Some of the things you can see, but a lot of the improvement you never really notice.”
Take lead pollution. Tests showing high lead levels among some school children and traffic policemen in the early 1990s, spurred efforts to ban leaded gas. The plan met stiff resistance from oil producers and car manufacturers. Consumers were concerned over costs, but Piyasvasti, then with the National Energy Policy Office, pushed on.
Thailand quickly went lead-free by 1995, a year before the United States, which had begun its own conversion two decades earlier.
Bangkok can do even better, according to Dr. Bhichit Rattakul, founder of the Anti Air Pollution & Environmental Protection Foundation. He points to outdated buses, many retired from the government fleet, but then returned to service by private operators.
He says that almost half of the city’s fleet of 14,000 buses violate air quality controls. “We need to get tougher. These rules are on the books. We just need better enforcement.”
Piyasvasti promises that dirty buses “are my next target.” He wants to convert them to natural gas, which not only burns cleaner but, thanks to subsidies from fuel taxes, offers better value.
However, conversion costs are high – over $5000 for trucks and buses, he says. Piyasvasti hopes to provide additional incentives with the fuel fund.
A London-trained economist, Piyasvasti is adept at financing green schemes. He raised fuel prices quietly recently to stockpile funds to increase incentives for bio-fuel, the rage across the globe.
Biodiesel (diesel mixed with local palm oil), and gasohol, (with ethanol made from local sugar cane and tapioca), have been available in limited quality since 2004. Within five years, Piyasvasti promises a complete conversion to bio-fuel.
Environmental attention in Bangkok naturally focuses upon cars because of colossal road jams. In the 1990s, when Shah began visiting, gridlock strangled efficiency. Short rides in taxis took two hours. Some workers commuted at dark, then slept in cars or under their desks. Bangkok officials seemed unable to figure out a means of easing the jams.
The Asian Financial Crisis that swept across the region was a blessing in disguise. The meltdown began and was perhaps the most severe here. Thailand is only now returning to 1997 levels of prosperity, but the crisis provided a vital breather from the pell-mell pace of development. Rampant real estate speculation stalled, allowing planners a chance to reassess growth and propose new directions.
Most important was the introduction of the first subway in 1999. The BTS, an elevated train, took time to win acceptance, concedes Bhichit, governor of the Bangkok region when it opened, but patronage has since doubled.
“You see everyone on it,” he notes, “not just tourists. But business people with briefcases and ties. It works.”
A second subway line was added a few years later, but Bhichit and other urban activists want still more track. A new line is under construction to the recently-opened airport, and the government plans major expansion into the suburbs.
Bhichit endorses even more radical measures, like dropping parking-space requirements for new buildings. This would encourage fewer people to take to congested city streets, where another 300 cars are added daily. “We need to get people out of their cars.”
Doing so would provide another dividend in the battle for clear air. Bangkok residents could take pride in their bluer skies, something seldom seen elsewhere in Asia.
Ron Gluckman is an American reporter, currently based in Bangkok (and Cambodia), who has been roaming around Asia for 16 years for a variety of publications including Overseas Focus in the UK, which ran this piece in May 2007.
All pictures by Ron Gluckman
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Asian Air Pollution Changing Clouds
March 10, 2007
Once living standards in a country get high enough people in that country start wanting to reduce pollution. The environmental movement did not take off in the United States in the 1960s because college students were taking LSD and mushrooms. The US reached a point where people had enough possessions that other desires and needs became important. Our problem with China, India, and other Asian countries is that they've rising emissions of pollutants from a few billion people with too many years to go before they reach living standards high enough to care about pollution control.
To put it another way: When the United States and Europe went through industrialization they had a lot fewer people doing the industrializing. First off, the US and Europe had a much smaller populations 100 years ago than they do today. Second, even today the US has a population less than a quarter of China's. India's population will reach 1.4 billion in 2025 and 1.6 billion by 2050 or more than 5 times America's population today. While elites in First World fully industrialized countries are worried about carbon dioxide emissions the Chinese and Indians haven't even graduated to the level of caring much about particulates and oxides of sulfur and nitrogen and the like. The quality of air in Chinese cities is getting worse as coal burning power plants get built at a frenetic pace.
I see this as a big and underappreciated problem for the future. Asian industrialization in such large populations pushes billions of people up into the ranks of polluters many years before they reach the ranks of yuppie environmentalists. Here's some new research on the effects that Asian air pollution is having on northern Pacific Ocean weather.
COLLEGE STATION – Severe pollution from the Far East is almost certainly affecting the weather near you, says a Texas A&M University researcher who has studied the problem and has published a landmark paper on the topic in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.
Renyi Zhang, professor of atmospheric sciences at Texas A&M and lead author of the paper, says the study is the first of its kind that provides indisputable evidence that man-made pollution is adversely affecting the storm track over the Pacific Ocean, a major weather event in the northern hemisphere during winter. The project was funded by the National Science Foundation and NASA.
Zhang says the culprit is easy to detect: pollution from industrial and power plants in China and India. Both countries have seen huge increases in their economies, which means more large factories and power plants to sustain such growth. All of these emit immense quantities of pollution – much of it soot and sulfate aerosols – into the atmosphere, which is carried by the prevailing winds over the Pacific Ocean and eventually worldwide.
Using satellite imagery and computer models, Zhang says that in roughly the last 20 years or so, the amount of deep convective clouds in this area increased from 20 to 50 percent, suggesting an intensified storm track in the Pacific.
Dr. Zhang is also concerned that soot could deposit on northern ice and snow, cause more sunlight absorption, and melting of the ice.
"The general air flow is from west to east, but there is also some serious concern that the polar regions could be affected by this pollution. That could have potentially catastrophic results."
Soot, in the form of black carbon, can collect on ice packs and attract more heat from the sun, meaning a potential acceleration of melting of the polar ice caps, he believes.
"It possibly means the polar ice caps could melt quicker than we had believed, which of course, results in rising sea level rates," he adds.
The speed of Chinese economic development and growth in energy consumption is breathtaking.
In November, the International Energy Agency projected that China will become the world's largest source of carbon dioxide emissions in 2009, overtaking the United States nearly a decade earlier than previously anticipated. Coal is expected to be responsible for three-quarters of that carbon dioxide.
And the problem will get worse. Between now and 2020, China's energy consumption will more than double, according to expert estimates.
China has hundreds of new coal electric plants planned.
China's emissions regulations that exist are widely ignored.
The problem is that IGCC plants still cost about 10 percent to 20 percent more per megawatt than pulverized-coal-fired power plants. (And that's without carbon dioxide capture.) China's power producers--much like their counterparts in the United States and Europe--are waiting for a financial or political reason to make the switch. In part, what's been missing is regulation that penalizes conventional coal plants. And China's environmental agencies lack the resources and power to make companies comply even with regulations already on the books. Top officials in Beijing admit that their edicts are widely ignored, as new power plants are erected without environmental assessments and, according to some sources, without required equipment for pollution control.
I find the Western emphasis on Kyoto CO2 emissions reductions somehow quaint. It assumes we've moved on from worrying about already conquered problems with conventional ground level pollutants that directly harm health. But the environmental impact of Asian industrialization does not fit with that view.
Technologies that allow emissions reduction have already been developed in the West and those technologies keep getting better due to tightening environmental regulations in Western countries. So in theory China and India could adopt those technologies. But since those technologies raise costs use of them requires a willingness to pay a price. That price is obviously higher than they are willing to pay.
The Asian pollution problem highlights another reason why we'd benefit from the development of ways to cheaply generate energy without use of fossil fuels. If nuclear, solar, wind, and other energy technologies become cheaper than fossil fuels then the industrializing Asian countries would switch to these technologies without first achieving levels of per capita GDP high enough to trigger the development of large scale environmental movements.
Update: Other recent research finds less rain in China's mountains due to pollution.
Jerusalem, March 7, 2007 -- Manmade climate change due to pollution seriously inhibits precipitation over hills in semi-arid regions, a phenomenon with dire consequences for water resources in the Middle east and many other parts of the world, a study by a Chinese-Israeli research team, led by Prof. Daniel Rosenfeld of the Hebrew University of Jerusalem, has shown.
The Chinese and Israeli researchers showed that the average precipitation on Mount Hua near Xian in central China has decreased by 20 percent along with increasing levels of manmade air pollution during the last 50 years. The precipitation loss was doubled on days that had the poorest visibility due to pollution particles in the air. This explains the widely observed trends of decrease in mountain precipitation relative to the rainfall in nearby densely populated lowlands, which until now had not been directly ascribed to air pollution.
Here is the paper in Science.
Industrialization in countries holding a few billion people creates environment problems on a scale which we have not seen previously. This comes on top of Western pollution.
Update II: An article from the June 11, 2006 New York Times illustrates the scale of China's pollution problems.
In early April, a dense cloud of pollutants over Northern China sailed to nearby Seoul, sweeping along dust and desert sand before wafting across the Pacific. An American satellite spotted the cloud as it crossed the West Coast.
Researchers in California, Oregon and Washington noticed specks of sulfur compounds, carbon and other byproducts of coal combustion coating the silvery surfaces of their mountaintop detectors. These microscopic particles can work their way deep into the lungs, contributing to respiratory damage, heart disease and cancer.
Filters near Lake Tahoe in the mountains of eastern California "are the darkest that we've seen" outside smoggy urban areas, said Steven S. Cliff, an atmospheric scientist at the University of California at Davis.
The same double digit percentage increase becomes a larger absolute increase each year. Then there's India.
Already, China uses more coal than the United States, the European Union and Japan combined. And it has increased coal consumption 14 percent in each of the past two years in the broadest industrialization ever. Every week to 10 days, another coal-fired power plant opens somewhere in China that is big enough to serve all the households in Dallas or San Diego.
To make matters worse, India is right behind China in stepping up its construction of coal-fired power plants — and has a population expected to outstrip China's by 2030.
When China reaches the same total GDP as the United States the Chinese will pollute far more than Americans because China will have much lower living standards per person. At that point China will have less than a quarter the per capita GDP and far less accumulated assets in the form of houses, cars, and gadgets. So Chinese people will be more interested in accumulating assets than in pollution reduction.
The positive correlation between living standards and interest in pollution reduction means we need to accelerate the development of energy technologies that are both cheaper and less polluting. Uptake of technologies that are both cleaner and cheaper does not require development of a big mass environmental protection movement in China and India. Market forces alone will drive the shift away from dirtier technologies.
By Randall Parker at 2007 March 10 08:54 PM Trends Climate | TrackBack
Once living standards in a country get high enough people in that country start wanting to reduce pollution. The environmental movement did not take off in the United States in the 1960s because college students were taking LSD and mushrooms. The US reached a point where people had enough possessions that other desires and needs became important. Our problem with China, India, and other Asian countries is that they've rising emissions of pollutants from a few billion people with too many years to go before they reach living standards high enough to care about pollution control.
To put it another way: When the United States and Europe went through industrialization they had a lot fewer people doing the industrializing. First off, the US and Europe had a much smaller populations 100 years ago than they do today. Second, even today the US has a population less than a quarter of China's. India's population will reach 1.4 billion in 2025 and 1.6 billion by 2050 or more than 5 times America's population today. While elites in First World fully industrialized countries are worried about carbon dioxide emissions the Chinese and Indians haven't even graduated to the level of caring much about particulates and oxides of sulfur and nitrogen and the like. The quality of air in Chinese cities is getting worse as coal burning power plants get built at a frenetic pace.
I see this as a big and underappreciated problem for the future. Asian industrialization in such large populations pushes billions of people up into the ranks of polluters many years before they reach the ranks of yuppie environmentalists. Here's some new research on the effects that Asian air pollution is having on northern Pacific Ocean weather.
COLLEGE STATION – Severe pollution from the Far East is almost certainly affecting the weather near you, says a Texas A&M University researcher who has studied the problem and has published a landmark paper on the topic in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.
Renyi Zhang, professor of atmospheric sciences at Texas A&M and lead author of the paper, says the study is the first of its kind that provides indisputable evidence that man-made pollution is adversely affecting the storm track over the Pacific Ocean, a major weather event in the northern hemisphere during winter. The project was funded by the National Science Foundation and NASA.
Zhang says the culprit is easy to detect: pollution from industrial and power plants in China and India. Both countries have seen huge increases in their economies, which means more large factories and power plants to sustain such growth. All of these emit immense quantities of pollution – much of it soot and sulfate aerosols – into the atmosphere, which is carried by the prevailing winds over the Pacific Ocean and eventually worldwide.
Using satellite imagery and computer models, Zhang says that in roughly the last 20 years or so, the amount of deep convective clouds in this area increased from 20 to 50 percent, suggesting an intensified storm track in the Pacific.
Dr. Zhang is also concerned that soot could deposit on northern ice and snow, cause more sunlight absorption, and melting of the ice.
"The general air flow is from west to east, but there is also some serious concern that the polar regions could be affected by this pollution. That could have potentially catastrophic results."
Soot, in the form of black carbon, can collect on ice packs and attract more heat from the sun, meaning a potential acceleration of melting of the polar ice caps, he believes.
"It possibly means the polar ice caps could melt quicker than we had believed, which of course, results in rising sea level rates," he adds.
The speed of Chinese economic development and growth in energy consumption is breathtaking.
In November, the International Energy Agency projected that China will become the world's largest source of carbon dioxide emissions in 2009, overtaking the United States nearly a decade earlier than previously anticipated. Coal is expected to be responsible for three-quarters of that carbon dioxide.
And the problem will get worse. Between now and 2020, China's energy consumption will more than double, according to expert estimates.
China has hundreds of new coal electric plants planned.
China's emissions regulations that exist are widely ignored.
The problem is that IGCC plants still cost about 10 percent to 20 percent more per megawatt than pulverized-coal-fired power plants. (And that's without carbon dioxide capture.) China's power producers--much like their counterparts in the United States and Europe--are waiting for a financial or political reason to make the switch. In part, what's been missing is regulation that penalizes conventional coal plants. And China's environmental agencies lack the resources and power to make companies comply even with regulations already on the books. Top officials in Beijing admit that their edicts are widely ignored, as new power plants are erected without environmental assessments and, according to some sources, without required equipment for pollution control.
I find the Western emphasis on Kyoto CO2 emissions reductions somehow quaint. It assumes we've moved on from worrying about already conquered problems with conventional ground level pollutants that directly harm health. But the environmental impact of Asian industrialization does not fit with that view.
Technologies that allow emissions reduction have already been developed in the West and those technologies keep getting better due to tightening environmental regulations in Western countries. So in theory China and India could adopt those technologies. But since those technologies raise costs use of them requires a willingness to pay a price. That price is obviously higher than they are willing to pay.
The Asian pollution problem highlights another reason why we'd benefit from the development of ways to cheaply generate energy without use of fossil fuels. If nuclear, solar, wind, and other energy technologies become cheaper than fossil fuels then the industrializing Asian countries would switch to these technologies without first achieving levels of per capita GDP high enough to trigger the development of large scale environmental movements.
Update: Other recent research finds less rain in China's mountains due to pollution.
Jerusalem, March 7, 2007 -- Manmade climate change due to pollution seriously inhibits precipitation over hills in semi-arid regions, a phenomenon with dire consequences for water resources in the Middle east and many other parts of the world, a study by a Chinese-Israeli research team, led by Prof. Daniel Rosenfeld of the Hebrew University of Jerusalem, has shown.
The Chinese and Israeli researchers showed that the average precipitation on Mount Hua near Xian in central China has decreased by 20 percent along with increasing levels of manmade air pollution during the last 50 years. The precipitation loss was doubled on days that had the poorest visibility due to pollution particles in the air. This explains the widely observed trends of decrease in mountain precipitation relative to the rainfall in nearby densely populated lowlands, which until now had not been directly ascribed to air pollution.
Here is the paper in Science.
Industrialization in countries holding a few billion people creates environment problems on a scale which we have not seen previously. This comes on top of Western pollution.
Update II: An article from the June 11, 2006 New York Times illustrates the scale of China's pollution problems.
In early April, a dense cloud of pollutants over Northern China sailed to nearby Seoul, sweeping along dust and desert sand before wafting across the Pacific. An American satellite spotted the cloud as it crossed the West Coast.
Researchers in California, Oregon and Washington noticed specks of sulfur compounds, carbon and other byproducts of coal combustion coating the silvery surfaces of their mountaintop detectors. These microscopic particles can work their way deep into the lungs, contributing to respiratory damage, heart disease and cancer.
Filters near Lake Tahoe in the mountains of eastern California "are the darkest that we've seen" outside smoggy urban areas, said Steven S. Cliff, an atmospheric scientist at the University of California at Davis.
The same double digit percentage increase becomes a larger absolute increase each year. Then there's India.
Already, China uses more coal than the United States, the European Union and Japan combined. And it has increased coal consumption 14 percent in each of the past two years in the broadest industrialization ever. Every week to 10 days, another coal-fired power plant opens somewhere in China that is big enough to serve all the households in Dallas or San Diego.
To make matters worse, India is right behind China in stepping up its construction of coal-fired power plants — and has a population expected to outstrip China's by 2030.
When China reaches the same total GDP as the United States the Chinese will pollute far more than Americans because China will have much lower living standards per person. At that point China will have less than a quarter the per capita GDP and far less accumulated assets in the form of houses, cars, and gadgets. So Chinese people will be more interested in accumulating assets than in pollution reduction.
The positive correlation between living standards and interest in pollution reduction means we need to accelerate the development of energy technologies that are both cheaper and less polluting. Uptake of technologies that are both cleaner and cheaper does not require development of a big mass environmental protection movement in China and India. Market forces alone will drive the shift away from dirtier technologies.
By Randall Parker at 2007 March 10 08:54 PM Trends Climate | TrackBack
Winter woes: Delhi headed for air pollution disaster
dot.gif (88 bytes)Centre for Science and Environment (CSE) warns of smoggy, choking winter in Delhi
dot.gif (88 bytes)City at risk of losing the air quality gains from its past action because of rising vehicle numbers and its love for diesel as the fuel of choice. But evidence indicts diesel fumes as harbingers of cancer and other deadly ailments
New Delhi, November 14, 2006: With the mercury dipping, the air in Delhi has begun to get heavy with dust, smoke and particles. Calm and cool weather is blocking the dispersal of smoke and pollutants. Low-hanging shroud impairs visibility, chokes lungs. A new assessment by Centre for Science and Environment (CSE) of the trends in the peak pollution levels during winter months since 1998 has revealed that pollution in winter -- despite a climb-down until 2003 -- has begun to rise once again. The two months of September and October during 2006 show rapid build-up of pollution. This winter is a reminder of the growing pollution crisis, and our inability to put into action the real solutions (see graph).
Sustaining the pollution control efforts for further reduction in pollution levels is turning out to be an enormous challenge due to the explosive increase in vehicle numbers in Delhi. Over the last 10 years, the total personal vehicle registration has recorded a staggering increase of 105 per cent. In the same period, cars alone have increased by 157 per cent -- an effect of excess indulgence in personal mobility.
It is shocking to note that diesel cars during the same period have increased by 425 per cent. The share of diesel cars, a mere 4 per cent of the total new car registration in 1999, has climbed to nearly 20 per cent in 2006. While petrol cars have increased at 8.5 per cent annually, diesel cars have maintained a growth rate of 16.6 per annum. This overwhelming growth can be devastating in a city desperate for solutions to smoke, particles and NOx.
So what if Delhi has phased out 12,000 diesel buses to escape from the lethal effect of toxic diesel particles -- even at a very conservative estimate, the 118,631 diesel cars on the city’s roads is equivalent to adding particulate emissions from nearly 30,000 diesel buses! While public transport buses, three-wheelers and most taxis in Delhi have been effectively kept away from dirty diesel, it is the personal car segment which is riding high on the cheap and toxic fuel. Diesel is making a comeback through personal transport and is threatening to nullify the impact of the CNG programme.
Officials warn that the number of bigger jeeps or SUVs, taken separately, could be much higher due to their daily influx from the surrounding satellite towns. A large number of these vehicles come to Delhi and leave the city during peak hours. Diesel cars and SUVs not only emit several times more particulates, but are also allowed to emit three times more NOx compared to a petrol car. Even the assessment of trends in fuel consumption in the city confirms that the total diesel fuel consumption that was lowered with the ascendancy of CNG in the beginning of this decade has begun to increase again.
This is very disturbing because deadly facts about diesel toxicity and evidence of the acute cancer-causing potential of diesel pollutants are pouring in from around the world. Diesel fumes have been found to bear a lot more particles and NOx than petrol exhaust and are several times more toxic. Clean diesel solutions are still not available in India.
Significant steps were taken in the last few years to combat air pollution in Delhi. These include the implementation of one of the largest ever CNG programme in the world, implementation of Euro II and III standards, lowering of fuel sulphur to 500 ppm and subsequently to 350 ppm, lowering of benzene to 1 per cent and capping of the age of the commercial vehicles at 15 years. These first generation measures had targeted to lower the deadly particulate pollution especially particulates from the poor quality diesel in the city. These mitigation efforts helped to stabilise particulates and substantially lower SO2 and CO. Substantial air quality gains were made possible with aggressive measures.
But new challenges have begun to surface that requires consistent, sustained and aggressive action. The particulate levels, despite stabilisation, are still very high. NOx levels record steady rise in Delhi. If not tracked immediately, this can sabotage one of the largest clean air programmes in the world.
Delhi will have to control the sheer numbers of cars and two-wheelers that are overpowering any attempts at change. Cars and two-wheelers take up nearly 90 per cent of the road space, meet less than 20 per cent of the travel demand and pollute excessively. The current efforts to augment the public transport buses and building of high capacity bus systems and the metro must gather momentum. The scale and the speed of this transition are critical to lower the numbers of cars and pollution in the city.
Earlier studies such as those conducted by the All India Institute of Medical Sciences have shown that hospital admissions due to respiratory and cardiac symptoms increase manifold during the winter months in Delhi. CSE, therefore, warns that Delhi will require pollution emergency measures this winter to avoid a public health disaster:
* Initiate stringent on road checks for smoky vehicles. Harsh penalty should be imposed if vehicles are seen with visible smoke.
* Supportive measures are needed to intensify use of public transport this winter. Already, buses meet as much as 61 per cent of the travel demand in Delhi. Services of both metro and the existing bus system should be intensified to encourage maximum usage.
* Intensify dedicated bus and railway services between Delhi and the surrounding satellite towns to discourage commuting in cars.
* Encourage alternative-fuelled cars and discourage polluting cars, particularly on very high pollution days or in high pollution zones to be identified from the CPCB’s air pollution data.
For more details, please contact CSE’s Right to Clean Air Campaign at: 29955124,29956110 Ext. 221
Sign up for the Right to Clean Air Campaign’s monthly air pollution bulletin with news, views and analysis at the following link:
http://www.equitywatch.org/phplist/?p=subscribe&id=4
dot.gif (88 bytes)City at risk of losing the air quality gains from its past action because of rising vehicle numbers and its love for diesel as the fuel of choice. But evidence indicts diesel fumes as harbingers of cancer and other deadly ailments
New Delhi, November 14, 2006: With the mercury dipping, the air in Delhi has begun to get heavy with dust, smoke and particles. Calm and cool weather is blocking the dispersal of smoke and pollutants. Low-hanging shroud impairs visibility, chokes lungs. A new assessment by Centre for Science and Environment (CSE) of the trends in the peak pollution levels during winter months since 1998 has revealed that pollution in winter -- despite a climb-down until 2003 -- has begun to rise once again. The two months of September and October during 2006 show rapid build-up of pollution. This winter is a reminder of the growing pollution crisis, and our inability to put into action the real solutions (see graph).
Sustaining the pollution control efforts for further reduction in pollution levels is turning out to be an enormous challenge due to the explosive increase in vehicle numbers in Delhi. Over the last 10 years, the total personal vehicle registration has recorded a staggering increase of 105 per cent. In the same period, cars alone have increased by 157 per cent -- an effect of excess indulgence in personal mobility.
It is shocking to note that diesel cars during the same period have increased by 425 per cent. The share of diesel cars, a mere 4 per cent of the total new car registration in 1999, has climbed to nearly 20 per cent in 2006. While petrol cars have increased at 8.5 per cent annually, diesel cars have maintained a growth rate of 16.6 per annum. This overwhelming growth can be devastating in a city desperate for solutions to smoke, particles and NOx.
So what if Delhi has phased out 12,000 diesel buses to escape from the lethal effect of toxic diesel particles -- even at a very conservative estimate, the 118,631 diesel cars on the city’s roads is equivalent to adding particulate emissions from nearly 30,000 diesel buses! While public transport buses, three-wheelers and most taxis in Delhi have been effectively kept away from dirty diesel, it is the personal car segment which is riding high on the cheap and toxic fuel. Diesel is making a comeback through personal transport and is threatening to nullify the impact of the CNG programme.
Officials warn that the number of bigger jeeps or SUVs, taken separately, could be much higher due to their daily influx from the surrounding satellite towns. A large number of these vehicles come to Delhi and leave the city during peak hours. Diesel cars and SUVs not only emit several times more particulates, but are also allowed to emit three times more NOx compared to a petrol car. Even the assessment of trends in fuel consumption in the city confirms that the total diesel fuel consumption that was lowered with the ascendancy of CNG in the beginning of this decade has begun to increase again.
This is very disturbing because deadly facts about diesel toxicity and evidence of the acute cancer-causing potential of diesel pollutants are pouring in from around the world. Diesel fumes have been found to bear a lot more particles and NOx than petrol exhaust and are several times more toxic. Clean diesel solutions are still not available in India.
Significant steps were taken in the last few years to combat air pollution in Delhi. These include the implementation of one of the largest ever CNG programme in the world, implementation of Euro II and III standards, lowering of fuel sulphur to 500 ppm and subsequently to 350 ppm, lowering of benzene to 1 per cent and capping of the age of the commercial vehicles at 15 years. These first generation measures had targeted to lower the deadly particulate pollution especially particulates from the poor quality diesel in the city. These mitigation efforts helped to stabilise particulates and substantially lower SO2 and CO. Substantial air quality gains were made possible with aggressive measures.
But new challenges have begun to surface that requires consistent, sustained and aggressive action. The particulate levels, despite stabilisation, are still very high. NOx levels record steady rise in Delhi. If not tracked immediately, this can sabotage one of the largest clean air programmes in the world.
Delhi will have to control the sheer numbers of cars and two-wheelers that are overpowering any attempts at change. Cars and two-wheelers take up nearly 90 per cent of the road space, meet less than 20 per cent of the travel demand and pollute excessively. The current efforts to augment the public transport buses and building of high capacity bus systems and the metro must gather momentum. The scale and the speed of this transition are critical to lower the numbers of cars and pollution in the city.
Earlier studies such as those conducted by the All India Institute of Medical Sciences have shown that hospital admissions due to respiratory and cardiac symptoms increase manifold during the winter months in Delhi. CSE, therefore, warns that Delhi will require pollution emergency measures this winter to avoid a public health disaster:
* Initiate stringent on road checks for smoky vehicles. Harsh penalty should be imposed if vehicles are seen with visible smoke.
* Supportive measures are needed to intensify use of public transport this winter. Already, buses meet as much as 61 per cent of the travel demand in Delhi. Services of both metro and the existing bus system should be intensified to encourage maximum usage.
* Intensify dedicated bus and railway services between Delhi and the surrounding satellite towns to discourage commuting in cars.
* Encourage alternative-fuelled cars and discourage polluting cars, particularly on very high pollution days or in high pollution zones to be identified from the CPCB’s air pollution data.
For more details, please contact CSE’s Right to Clean Air Campaign at: 29955124,29956110 Ext. 221
Sign up for the Right to Clean Air Campaign’s monthly air pollution bulletin with news, views and analysis at the following link:
http://www.equitywatch.org/phplist/?p=subscribe&id=4
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